EllioTrades: Avalanche / Ava Labs / Blackhole mention research

Snapshot: 12 September 2026 UTC. Coverage is incomplete. This is a verified recovered-post sample, not every historical mention.

The deliverable contains a searchable timeline, monthly frequency chart, topic breakdown, engagement ledger, market follow-through table, and CSV/JSON exports. No recurring monitor is active.

Findings

1. His relationship is explicit, not merely inferred from mentions. In the 20 May 2025 introduction, he identifies himself as a Blackhole cofounder and names SuperVerse and Avalanche Foundation backing. This reports his statement; it is not a financial audit of those relationships.

2. The recovered sequence changes subject over time: launch and allocation promotion in May–July 2025; Blackhole activity/payback claims in August; revenue valuation in November; Ethereum expansion and responses to weaker Avalanche activity in December; a Supernova giveaway in February 2026; and a Blackhole launch-related comment in June 2026. The sequence is an interpretation of recovered posts, not a complete history of his views.

3. Engagement has explicit incentive context. Six of eleven core posts contain giveaway/incentive-related language, including a winner-administration reply. Nine of all twenty-two posts do. These are not nine proven paid endorsements or nine active reward offers. The introduction and the February giveaway explicitly solicit engagement.

4. Replies materially change the picture. Two December replies discuss weaker Avalanche volumes and the Ethereum expansion. Those lower-view posts would be missed by an announcement-only sample.

5. Ava Labs and Avalanche Foundation are not interchangeable. No literal Ava Labs/AvaLabs match was verified in this sample. The introduction tags @AvalancheFDN, which is separately classified. An interview with Emin Gun Sirer does not become an Ava Labs textual mention unless its caption says so.

6. Protocol growth claims and token-price outcomes are different measurements. Price windows below are descriptive and do not validate revenue claims or show that a post caused a price change. BLACK spot returns are not veBLACK total returns: locking, distributions and yield are excluded.

Recovered sample metrics

Interactions = likes + replies + reposts. Quotes and bookmarks are separate fields, not added to that proxy. The view-based interaction ratio is interactions / views × 100, not official X engagement rate. Counts are mirror snapshots, not necessarily current platform values. All 22 records have the six requested social metric fields populated by the mirror.

Topics overlap. A post tagging @BlackholeDEX is counted in that tag category, not automatically counted as a separate standalone “Blackhole” word match. Core posts may also carry supplemental topics. All headline counts deduplicate status IDs.

Engagement concentration

The two most-viewed recovered core posts account for 63.4% of summed core views. This is sample concentration, not unique audience share.

All verified core posts, chronologically

Supplemental records

These are shown separately rather than silently expanding the user’s original keyword set.

Historical market context

The dashboard includes every available 1-, 7-, and 30-day window for both assets. The examples below are selected to illustrate the difference between protocol commentary and asset-price performance, not to grade trading skill.

Source: DefiLlama historical coin-price API. Asset identity was checked against protocol metadata: BLACK is Avalanche contract 0xcd94a87696fac69edae3a70fe5725307ae1c43f6, CoinGecko ID `blackhole`; AVAX uses `avalanche-2`. Requests target exact posting time and +86,400/+604,800/+2,592,000 seconds. A price is accepted only if confidence is at least 0.9 and its timestamp is within one hour of the target. Raw prices, actual observation times and source URLs are preserved. Missing baseline means no return is computed. No nearest-day interpolation or invented pre-launch BLACK prices.

Scope and methodology

• Discovery used public web indexing, direct X attempts, TwStalker/Instalker, 24vids video-caption mirrors, KuCoin embedded originals and source-linked reporting. Broad and date-bounded queries covered Avalanche, Ava Labs/AvaLabs, Blackhole/@BlackholeDEX and aliases. Search engines sometimes returned unrelated results; those were rejected.
• A record enters the timeline only with a resolvable status ID and structured FXTwitter evidence identifying author `elliotrades`, numeric author ID `948736680554409984`. API dates are corroborated with the Snowflake timestamp. API-author matching establishes consistency of the public mirror, not authenticated X verification.
• We preserve raw structured responses locally, including collection time, then classify the author’s own text. Other people’s replies and quoted-post text are not attributed to him. No independent repost-only events were verified.
• Keywords are case-insensitive. Core Avalanche and Blackhole word matches use boundaries; Black Hole spacing is accepted. Ava Labs/AvaLabs and @BlackholeDEX are supported. @AVAX/AVAX/$AVAX, @AvalancheFDN, $BLACK and blackholecoded are supplemental. A handle in a profile biography is not a post.
• Edited/deleted history, comprehensive reply pagination, media OCR, spoken video/Spaces mentions and all posts outside search indexes remain unverified. The caption of a video may be included while its audio is not analyzed.
• Metrics are retrieved on 12 September 2026; upstream cache age is unknown. Do not compare snapshots as equal-age engagement rates. Summed views are repeated views across posts and possibly repeated viewers. There is no complete all-post denominator, historical follower series, reliable sentiment distribution, or statistically defensible impact/causality estimate.

Unresolved coverage and exclusions

• Public X profile access failed. Direct TwStalker fetching returned HTTP 403; cached search copies and structured per-ID FXTwitter responses remained usable. The latter is not a full-history search endpoint.
• Unresolved leads include a fourth-epoch Blackhole celebration, a launch-day reply to Becker, a SUPER-buyback reply, and an AVAX-bridging/BLACK-partnership prompt. They lack sufficiently resolved ID/date evidence in this research and are not counted. See local lane notes for discovery URLs.
• BitMart blocks labeling EllioTrades alongside quoted Blackhole protocol updates lack reliably separated own-text evidence, so were excluded. Other people’s allegations, impersonator accounts and unrelated token results were also excluded.
• No verified records before May 2025 or after June 2026 were recovered. That is not a finding that he was silent outside that range. Likewise, no verified Ava Labs record is not evidence of zero lifetime mentions.
• To fulfill “every time” exhaustively would require an authorized full-archive X data source, complete pagination and separate handling of media/deletions. No paid archive access was purchased or credentials changed.

Files and reproducibility

• `site/index.html`: interactive dashboard; `site/data.json`: deduplicated paraphrases, source links and metrics.
• `site/posts.csv`, `site/market.csv`, `site/statistics.json`: analysis exports.
• `evidence/`, `avalanche/`, `blackhole-extra/`: local source snapshots and discovery notes. These directories are not served by the preview server.
• `build_data.py`: reconstruct the dataset from captured post evidence; `fetch_market.py`: bounded cached market retrieval; `build_report.py`: rebuild this report.
• `REVIEW.md`: independent post-data review; `verification/browser.json`: browser acceptance receipt.
• This is a one-time snapshot. The Portal is a private preview, not a public deployment or continuously updating tracker.