Opportunity analytics · live evidence + editable models

FIND THE
LEVER.

A decision desk for the protocol’s real capital levers: activation weight, reward flow, locker fee mode, collateral cost, specific-broker premium, and machine solvency.

THE LABEL IS THE EDGE

Observed public RPC state. Indexed first-party API. Documented protocol rule. Input your forecast. Modeled arithmetic—not a promise.

01 / DECISION QUEUE

Where the edge is—and isn’t.

OptimizeWatchAvoid

Verdicts update from your scenario. “Optimize” can mean minimizing a protocol fee; it never means guaranteed profit.

02 / STRATEGY MODEL

Put your assumptions on the table.

Activation reward sharedaily pool × added weight ÷ (active weight + added weight)Modeled net(reward share × horizon × (1 − haircut)) − entry − slippage − gas

03 / ACTIVATION CAPITAL LADDER

Upgrade weight before buying another broker.

Upgrades charge only the fee difference. A true ownership transfer clears activation.

MoveAdded weightObserved costCost / weight365d daily-pool hurdleModel verdict

SPECIFIC-BROKER PREMIUM

The on-chain AMM fee difference is the minimum trait edge you must justify before risk and gas.

Risk-adjusted break-even trait valuewaiting for scenario

04 / CLOCK IN REGIMES

Don’t annualize the launch burst.

Historical ETH input is a demand proxy. Output token value and realizable proceeds can differ.

DAILY INPUT PACE · CURRENT ETH PRICE

05 / LOCKER FEE ROUTER

Pay 0.5% now—or 20% of fees later.

The exact crossover is 2.5% gross fees on principal.

06 / COLLATERAL HURDLE

Borrowing keeps the broker—and resets activation.

Model the financing cost plus re-entry cost, not the 15% APR in isolation.

07 / BROKER BOX RISK DESK

Design RTP is not machine capacity.

The observed on-chain minimum bankroll is $1,000 per machine; free stock is marked using indexed token prices.

MachineFree stockMarked valueMin bankrollRoundsStatus

08 / EVIDENCE & FRESHNESS

Know what the model knows.

Coverage loading

Limits and interpretation